CBRE and Shinsaibashi-suji Shopping Street Promotion Association release

CBRE (Japan headquarters: Marunouchi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo) is pleased to announce that it has collaborated with the Shinsaibashi-suji Shopping Street Promotion Association (hereinafter Promotion Association) to complete a study of Shinsaibashi-suji Shopping Street’s pedestrian traffic volume. The findings have been published in a report titled, “Shinsaibashi-suji Shopping Street Pedestrian Traffic Volume Analysis Report.” The data shows the bustling nature of Osaka Minami, and we hope that it will raise further interest in the area which is already garnering attention from domestic/international businesses and tourists on the back of the upcoming Expo 2025 Osaka, Kansai.

■Report overview

Data for this study was compiled on the Shinsaibashi-suji Shopping Street, whose Promotion Association is headquartered at 2-2-22 Shinsaibashi-suji, Chuo-ku, Osaka. Shinsaibashi-suji Shopping Street, a commercial avenue with approximately 150 stores, stretches for about 580 meters from Unagidani-dori in the north to Soemoncho-dori in the south. The report contains two main data sets: 1. pedestrian traffic volume compiled between January 1, 2011 and June 30, 2023, provided by the Promotion Association; and 2. quarterly high street vacancy rate compiled by CBRE (details at the end of this release).

・Pedestrian traffic volume

Traffic volume is measured by analyzing footage recorded by four cameras installed along the shopping street. The number of people passing each recording point over a 24-hour period is added together to obtain total traffic volume.

■Report highlights

1. Pedestrian traffic volume for H1 2023 has recovered to reach 79.4% of 2019’s figures, and represents a 57.3% increase over H1 2022

・Pedestrian traffic volume on the Shinsaibashi-suji Shopping Street showed a steady increase from 2011 on the back of an increase in inbound foreign tourist numbers. From 2015 onward, pedestrian traffic volume remained largely unchanged from an annual peak of approximately 110 million people (Figure 1).

・The advent of the COVID-19 pandemic, however, resulted in a dramatic drop in foot traffic in the area from 2020, with annual pedestrian traffic volume in 2021 reaching just 46.4% of 2019’s figure. The release of restrictions on consumer movement and the relaxation of border controls from 2022, though, have resulted in a dramatic surge in foot traffic in the area, with total pedestrian traffic volume for H1 2023 (January to June) reaching approximately 43 million people, representing 79.4% of the equivalent figure for 2019. This is also a 57.3% increase over H1 2022, underscoring just how remarkable the recovery has been over the past 12 months.


Figure 1: Annual pedestrian traffic volume
Total traffic volume (People)
Source: Shinsaibashi-suji Shopping Street Promotion Association


2. Recovery in pedestrian traffic volume leads to a dramatic reduction in the vacancy rate

・When analyzing the relationship between high street vacancy rate and pedestrian traffic volume, the reduction in foot traffic seen from 2020 as a result of the spread of COVID-19 coincides exactly with a spike in the Shinsaibashi high street vacancy rate, with that vacancy rate reaching a peak of 23.3%.

・Since pedestrian traffic volume began to show a strong rebound in Q4 2022, the vacancy rate has dropped significantly, falling as low as 5.5% in the most recent survey which was conducted in Q2 2023.

*The vacancy rate data for Shinsaibashi-suji also covers some stores that lie outside the Shinsaibashi-suji Shopping Street.
*Due to the unique conditions created by the spread of COVID-19, no high street vacancy rate tabulations or reports were made in Q1 2020.


Figure 2: Shinsaibashi-suji Shopping Street pedestrian traffic volume and Shinsaibashi-suji high street vacancy rate

Source: CBRE, Shinsaibashi-suji Shopping Street Promotion Association

Yasuo Hirata, Chairman of the Promotion Association, who oversaw the project, commented, “We are delighted to be able to release the ‘Shinsaibashi-suji Shopping Street Pedestrian Traffic Volume Analysis Report’ in conjunction with CBRE. The results of the study make it clear that foot traffic on the shopping street has been steadily increasing since 2020. It also proves that the vacancy rate for street-level stores has improved in conjunction with the increase in pedestrian numbers, leading to an optimistic outlook for the Shinsaibashi-suji Shopping Street. People from around the world come to the vibrant Shinsaibashi-suji Shopping Street to enjoy the shopping and dining experiences. Our aim has been to create a Shinsaibashi that allows all our guests to enjoy what Kansai truly has to offer. The shopping district and department stores have worked together to provide information and improve the environment for both domestic and international customers, creating a unique attraction that allows people to enjoy walking around the city with peace of mind, regardless of weather conditions, day or night, and time of year. While the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a temporary lull, the shopping street has now regained its former bustle of activity. We hope that the pedestrian traffic data showcases the commercial benefits of the Shinsaibashi-suji Shopping Street, and the wider Osaka Minami and Dotonbori areas, to a greater audience.”

Nobuyoshi Nakajima (Director, Advisory & Transaction Services | Retail, CBRE) stated, “Prior to the pandemic, the Shinsaibashi area was thriving like never before, led particularly by an increase in international tourists. Street-level stores saw limited vacancy, with drugstores and duty-free operators anticipating the next availability. However, COVID-19 and its impact on tourist numbers and domestic consumer activity led to a sharp spike in the vacancy rate. With the recent recovery in pedestrian traffic, drugstores and recycling shops have been notably quick to reopen. Recently, more tenants representing a wide range of sectors such as athletic brands and international apparel brands are looking for storefront spaces. We believe that this quantified foot traffic and retail vacancy rate will not only serve as an additional resource for tenants considering opening a store in Shinsaibashi, but also, attract more tenants due to its compelling findings. We expect that the continued accumulation of traffic data will be used as an indicator for the revitalization of Osaka Minami, including the outlook for the Shinsaibashi market. In conducting this study with the Promotion Association, we hope to have supported efforts to increase Shinsaibashi's visibility and attractiveness.”

■Download link for the “Shinsaibashi-suji Shopping Street Pedestrian Traffic Volume Analysis Report” (in Japanese only)
https://www.cbre-propertysearch.jp/article/shinsaibashi_retail_market_01/

High street vacancy rate data

High street vacancy rate：	・Subject area independently established by CBRE,consisting of 179 buildings in the high street areas of Shinsaibashi ・All units for lease, including those on the ground floor, fall within the purview of the survey
High street rents/ Prime rents：	・Subject area independently established by CBRE ・Rents are set for a theoretical building with units of around 200㎡ per floor ・Survey restricted to ground floor units, which command the highest demand
Quarterly boundaries：	Q1: End of March  Q2: End of June  Q3: End of September  Q4: End of December
High street vacancy rate：	・Vacant units are those which are ready for immediate occupancy at time of survey (for new buildings, only fully completed buildings are counted)
High street rents：	・Averages of upper limit and lower limit of estimated achievable rents calculated based on a sample survey of the area (including service fees, and not taking free-rent periods or other incentives into account)
Prime rents：	・Upper limit of estimated achievable rents calculated based on a sample survey of the areas (including service fees, and not taking free-rent periods or other incentives into account) ・Rents for prime sites within key retail districts of major metropolitan areas

*From Q3, vacancy rate surveys will no longer be restricted to ground floor properties for which tenant demand is highest, but will instead cover all units for lease, including those on the ground floor.

Inquiries concerning this report
Nobuyoshi Nakajima (Director, Advisory & Transaction Services | Retail, CBRE)
Grand Front Osaka Tower A 32F, 4-20 Ofukacho, Kita-ku, Osaka-shi, Osaka 530-0011
Email: [email protected] Phone: 06-6292-1740

About Shinsaibashi-suji Shopping Street
One of the major shopping areas of central Osaka, along with the high-end brand area of Mido-suji and Dotonbori with its famous Glico sign, the Shinsaibashi-suji Shopping Street is popular with both locals and tourists. An arcade-style shopping street, it runs for a total length of 580 metres from Unagidani-dori in the north to Soemoncho-dori in the south, and contains around 150 stores. With a history that dates back as far as the Edo period, the Shinsaibashi-suji Shopping Street contains a diverse range of stores, from the long-established Daimaru department store to boutiques of the latest overseas fashion brands.
Shinsaibashi-suji Shopping Street official homepage (shinsaibashi.or.jp)

About CBRE Retail Services
Making use of robust data analytics, and many years of experience and know-how developed by working with retail markets both in Japan and abroad, CBRE Retail Services provides retail property solutions tailored to the specific requirements of our clients. While our primary focus is on brokerage services for leasing and sales of retail properties, we also provide a range of other strategic real estate services tailored to the needs of our customers, including advisory services and retail market analysis.

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