Japan Lender Survey 2025

CBRE recently carried out its 2025 Japan Lender Survey, an annual survey of companies providing real estate loans. Conducted in April and May of this year, the survey asked respondents about the loans extended during the 2024 fiscal year (FY 2024, which in Japan runs from April 2024 to March 2025), and their expectations for FY 2025. Despite the survey being carried out during a period of increased uncertainty following the announcement of U.S. reciprocal tariffs, no major changes were observed in terms of lending attitudes, further underscoring the fact that the lending environment remains generally accommodative.

The percentage of respondents indicating that 100% of their loan volume was for new acquisitions in FY 2024 reached 32% for senior lenders, an increase from the previous year. While the equivalent figure for mezzanine lenders fell from 50% to 45%, this still indicates strong support for new real estate acquisitions. In terms of lending conditions, required spreads remained stable for senior lenders, but rose for mezzanine lenders. As was the case last year, residential properties remained the most preferred asset type.

Approximately half of surveyed senior lenders indicated that they expected their new loan volume in FY 2025 to exceed that of FY 2024, with the remaining half projecting no change. Among mezzanine lenders, 35% anticipated an increase in loan volume, down significantly from the 60% figure reported the previous year. When asked to forecast spreads over the next year, the percentage of respondents projecting a rise increased from the previous year for both senior and mezzanine lenders. However, the consensus was that any increase would be within the range of 25 bps.

Among anticipated risk factors, rising interest rates remained uppermost in the minds of lenders. However, this concern was indicated by just 60% of respondents, well down from roughly 80% last year. Concerns over economic recession were mentioned by more respondents than a year ago. The general understanding among lenders was that future interest rate rises will be gradual, with one or two additional interest rate hikes expected for FY 2025.