Japan Logistics MarketView Q4 2023

Greater Tokyo vacancy rate exceeds 9% for first time since 2016 amid mounting vacancies in peripheral areas

• The vacancy rate for Large Multi-Tenant (LMT) logistics facilities in Greater Tokyo rose by 0.4 pp. q-o-q to 9.3% in Q4 2023. New supply for the quarter comprised 104,000 tsubo across three properties, two of which commenced operations at well below full capacity. Net absorption was just 73,000 tsubo, the lowest level in two years. The vacancy rate for existing facilities (more than one year old) rose from 2.1% to 2.7%, with vacancies in peripheral areas taking considerable time to fill. Average effective rents remained unchanged from the previous quarter at JPY 4,520 per tsubo in Q4 2023, but the polarization of rents based on location and specifications continued to be observed.

• The LMT vacancy rate in Greater Osaka reached 6.0%, up 1.5 pp. from the previous quarter. The vacancy rate for existing facilities fell to just 0.2%, as the area’s vacancies were predominantly concentrated in new properties. Effective rents rose by 0.5% q-o-q to JPY 4,130 per tsubo on the back of steady pre-leasing progress at facilities in and around central Osaka.

• The LMT vacancy rate in Greater Nagoya rose by 2.0 pp. q-o-q to 10.5%. Although the two new facilities completed this quarter commenced operations at less than full capacity, vacancies were filled in existing facilities. This pushed up net absorption for the 2023 calendar year to a record high 168,000 tsubo. Effective rents rose by 0.3% q-o-q to JPY 3,630 per tsubo.

• The LMT vacancy rate in Greater Fukuoka spiked by 2.2 pp. q-o-q to 8.1%. Although one of the quarter’s two new facilities came on stream below full occupancy, robust demand suggests that the vacancy rate is likely to fall in the coming quarters. Effective rents rose by 0.3% q-o-q to JPY 3,450 per tsubo.